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Saturday, April 26, 2008

Pricing Boosts CF Industries

CF Industries Holdings (NYSE: CF - News) has leading market shares in many key fertilizers. Strong domestic and international grain markets have produced an exceptionally high global demand for fertilizer, translating into substantially higher selling prices for all the products.

As a result, we rate the shares a Buy with a target of $160. On April 24, 2008, CF Industries reported net earnings of $2.77 per diluted share for the first quarter of 2008 versus $1.02 per share for the same quarter a year ago.

Net sales totaled $677 million, up 41% from the year-earlier quarter. Net sales for nitrogen totaled $438 million, up 25% from the first quarter 2007. Segment sales volumes for the quarter were down 11% from the first quarter 2007. Volume was 470,000 tons, up modestly from 461,000 in the year-earlier quarter, reflecting increased phosphate exports.

Currently, CF Industries Holdings is valued at 12.6x our 2008 estimate of $11.76. The company has leading market shares in many key fertilizers. Strong domestic and international grain markets have produced exceptionally high global demand for fertilizer translating into substantially higher selling prices for all the products. As a result, we rate the shares a Buy with a target of $160. This is 13.6x our 2008 estimate.

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