Agriculture & Fertilizer Stocks

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Friday, September 26, 2008

FERTILIZER MAKERS FALL FURTHER AS PRICES PLUNGE

For the sheer velocity and ferocity of its selloff, few groups have suffered as badly since late in the prior quarter as some of the agricultural products makers. It’s a pretty bold statement in the midst of a meltdown of financials, retailers, casinos, as well as - at various times this quarter - sectors like airlines and pharmaceuticals. But the deterioration in the market value of some fertilizer makers would stand out in even sharper relief largely because of the tremendous gains that these names marked in the first six months of the year - gains that, in some cases, have essentially vanished over the course of the last two or three months. Shares of Agrium (AGU), for example, have declined 43% since the mid-June highs. Terra Industries (TRA) has been cut in half since its stock topped out in late July, and is now trading just barely above last October’s lows. CF Industries (CF) has lost 49% of its value since its June 18 best, when shares reached $173. Since then, the stock lost $85 a share. The latest downleg came here Friday, as most names in the sector moved 10% to 20% lower in the session amid concerns about pricing for nitrogen products. According to Citigroup, which lowered its rating on several of the names Friday, the price of urea, a solid nitrogen product, fell 15% in the span of just a week. In the U.S., urea prices slumped to $575 a ton, from $705 a ton last week. Terra, which doesn’t have much direct exposure to urea sales, but could be hobbled if the weakness spreads across the portfolio of nitrogen-based products it makes, has been taken off Citi’s top picks list. The firm said nitrogen buyers have delayed purchases, instead drawing down inventories. Until urea prices stabilize, the stocks are likely to struggle, Citi said.

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