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Tuesday, August 12, 2008

CORN PRICES EASE AS USDA TEMPERS FLOOD IMPACT

It turns out that the June flooding across the Midwest that helped send agricultural commodity prices to record levels gave way to ideal weather for farming, limiting the hit that crops are going to take from the burst of deadly weather. That’s served as a rare blast of welcome air for beleagured stocks of fertilizer makers, which have gone from dizzying heights to thumping lows in the two tumultuous months since parts of the country got socked with torrential rain. According to the government’s department of agriculture, U.S. farmers will produce nearly 12.3 billion bushels of corn this year, some 5% above the rates forecast last month. The government said that the June flooding gave way to remarkably accommodating growing weather across ravaged parts of U.S. farmland. That helped virtually erase the fallout from the floods themselves, which damaged nearly 40% of cropland; the corn production is expected to represent the second-largest harvest on record. Yields, a key factor in agriculture products futures pricing, are expected to rise to 155 bushels per acre from last month’s estimate of 148 bushels; corn prices sagged nearly $2 from well over $7 at June’s records, falling to $5.55 recently. Shares of Mosiac (MOS), which sank as much as 41% from the June highs, have advanced nearly 4% Tuesday. Potash (POT) and Agrium (AGU) - both of which lost one-third of their market values in the two months since topping out in June - have increased 3% Tuesday.

Monsanto (MON) wasn’t hit quite as hard as its peers, falling about 25% from the June highs through Monday’s close. The agricultural nutrients concern said Tuesday it expected to see 2009 profits from its corn products increase as much as 30%, and that over the next four years, it expected to launch what it described as several new game-changing technologies in its nutrients product lines. That should allow the company to continue to stretch what has been an eight-year period in which it has boosted its share of the corn-products market. Monsanto rose 4% Tuesday.

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