Agriculture & Fertilizer Stocks

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Sunday, January 6, 2008

MON's a Star, in Two Bull Markets

Why does Monsanto (MON - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) elude people? Why do people not understand that we have a policy in this country and that policy makes Monsanto the Schlumberger (SLB - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) of its group? Why can't people grasp that there is a worldwide food shortage and Monsanto is the answer for that, too?

Why are people continually shocked about how good this stock is? It is in the sweet spot of not one but two bull markets: the oil and gas shortage and the food shortage.

Every time one of these stocks reports, you get an amazing reaction: Agrium (AGU - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Mosiac (MOS - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Deere (DE - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Syngenta (SYT - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) and Bunge (BG - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) go up. Every time. It is amazing to me that there is this kind of "you have to be kidding, this can't be that good" impact.

I think some of this is a legacy from people thinking that Monsanto is a chemical stock, like a Dow (DOW - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) or a DuPont (DD - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating). This is more of a biotech stock than a chemical stock.
The reaction to this company's earnings report today shows me that there is just still a lack of recognition of the ag bull market and a sense that the commodity prices for food have peaked.
Just the opposite. That's what this rally in ag, the endless rally, is about.

Random musings: One of the reasons I dislike this market so much is that a CVS (CVS - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) can have a weak month at its drug stores, raise the lower end of its guidance anyway -- because of Caremark, which is Medco (MHS - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) and Express Scripts (ESRX - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) and not just drug stores -- and then just be annihilated. This stock is down a gigantic amount. I own it for Action Alerts PLUS and I am itching to buy it, as I told readers earlier this morning, when it goes below my $36 cost basis, which, at this velocity I believe will definitely happen.

from thestreet.com. Jan 3rd

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