Really it is just the beginning of September, but historically the next two months are not kind to equity markets. Will this year be different? VIX spike and talk of bank failures… I think I would rather be on the sidelines than in a market that has bounced 50% while the circumstances have not justified that type of move, but maybe that is just me. Equities hit today; on this leg we target 975 in the S&P and 9075 in the Dow.
US dollar up 60 ticks now above the 20 day moving average and the Aussie down 160 ticks now below the 20 day moving average. RBA holds at 3.0%. See previous posts.
Oil broke the short term trendline, a trade below $68 should mean a trade lower. This bodes well for the Crude : natural gas ratio but not so good for the recent December $75/80 call spreads purchased for clients. Stay tuned. In natural gas we advised clients to buy back their November $6.50 call spreads today for $300 and to hold the $5.50 calls. Clients are down on the trade, expiration 44 days from today.
Silver and gold traded remarkably well considering all outside markets. We suggest long exposure in silver.
Sugar pared its losses closing down only 15-23 ticks. We still like being long March 10′ contracts. Agriculture puked today with a lot of red on the screen. We had already cut losses on the soybean spread from last week but today was a nail biter for those who stayed with it, as new crop gained 58′4 cents or $2920 on old crop (zsx9-zsu9). We feel a early frost scare is worth having light long exposure in grains, to date we’ve been wrong. Take profit on your October lean hogs but stay with the December for more upside. We advised clients to roll their long December live cattle/ short October live cattle into a long in February and to stay short October. With October being the front month we feel this spread will work better.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment