I Bought 100 shares here in the $98s as the stock has pulled back 6%; I continue to marvel at the price of this stock, which should be north of $120 in my book. Earnings are this Friday, and aside from the great story in potash, the story in phosphate might be even more unbelievable in the near term. I continue to believe this quarter's estimates of $0.95 are too low. Normally I don't buy anything ahead of earnings due to the heightened risk but, this is one I will bend that rule for.
Mosaic (MOS) is now a 5% stake in the fund, up from 4.2% entering the day. If the stock is dropped to $90 or so, I'll move this back up to a 6-8% type of position. If we ever see low $80s again it will probably go to a 10%+ position...
Note this is not a "technical" buy - the chart is actually showing a series of lower highs, so one might argue for the very near term it is actually a good short (which I could not argue with) but the focus in this fund is longer term fundamentals, and I can't find a space with better so I'll continue to layer in as the stock drops. Main concern with these type of "winning" stocks is hedge funds continuing to need to deleverage and sell what they can since they cannot sell the illiquid junk.
From seeking alpha
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